Market Overview
The Indian equity markets closed on a strong note on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, with benchmark indices extending their winning streak. The Nifty 50 surged 169.90 points (0.68%) to close at 25,239.10, while the Sensex gained 594.95 points (0.73%) to settle at 82,380.69. The Bank Nifty also participated in the rally, advancing 260 points (0.47%) to 55,148.
The market witnessed broad-based participation with 42 out of 50 Nifty constituents ending in the green, reflecting strong underlying momentum. Key contributors included Kotak Mahindra Bank (+2.58%), L&T (+2.28%), and Mahindra & Mahindra (+2.20%).
Technical Analysis
Nifty 50 Technical Setup
The Nifty has formed a bullish breakout pattern after surpassing the previous swing high of 25,154, creating a higher high-higher low formation on daily charts. Key technical observations:
- Support Levels: 25,150 (immediate), 25,000-24,850 (crucial support zone)
- Resistance Levels: 25,350-25,400 (immediate), 25,500-25,550 (key resistance)
- RSI: Climbing to 63.84, approaching overbought levels but showing sustained momentum
- Moving Averages: Index trading above all key EMAs with bullish crossover of 20 and 50-day EMAs
Strategy: Analysts recommend a buy-on-dips approach with targets of 25,350-25,500, keeping stop-loss at 25,050.
Bank Nifty Analysis
The Bank Nifty showed strong recovery momentum after months of underperformance:
- Current Level: 55,148 with immediate resistance at 55,567
- Key Resistance: 56,000-56,150 (61.8% retracement level)
- Support Levels: 54,975-54,950 (immediate), 54,700 (strong support)
- Technical Pattern: Bounced from horizontal trendline support and broke above 50-DEMA
Derivatives and Options Data
Key Options Insights
The options chain reveals strong bullish undertones:
- Maximum Call OI: 26,000 strike (70.7 lakh contracts) – acting as key resistance
- Strong Call Writing: 25,200 strike (38.02 lakh contracts)
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Jumped to 1.29 from 1.08, indicating bullish sentiment
- Max Put Writing: 55,000 strike for Bank Nifty (3.12 lakh contracts)
India VIX – Historic Lows
The India VIX closed at 10.27, down 1.2% and near its lifetime low of 10.12. This indicates:
- Extremely low volatility expectations
- Complacency among market participants
- Historically, such low VIX levels have preceded further market rallies
Global Market Cues
US Federal Reserve Policy Decision
The most significant global event is the US Fed’s two-day policy meeting concluding September 17, 2025. Key expectations:
- 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut
- First rate cut of 2025 amid cooling labor market data
- Potential market volatility with S&P 500 options pricing in an 88 basis point move
Commodity Markets
- Crude Oil: WTI at $64.50/barrel, up 1.5% due to Russian supply disruptions
- Gold: MCX Gold hit record high of ₹1,10,530 per 10 grams ahead of Fed decision
- Brent Crude: Trading at $68.44/barrel, relatively stable
SGX Nifty Pre-Market
SGX Nifty Futures trading at 25,375.50, up 39 points (+0.15%) from previous close, indicating a positive opening for Indian markets.
Institutional Activity
FII/DII Flow Analysis
Recent institutional flows show mixed but improving trends:
September 2025 Month-to-Date:
- FII Net Outflow: ₹10,204.54 crores
- DII Net Inflow: ₹30,599.38 crores
September 16, 2025:
- FII: Net buyers of ₹308.32 crores (turned positive)
- DII: Continued strong buying of ₹1,518.73 crores (15th consecutive session)
| Date | FII_Net | DII_Net | FII_MTD | DII_MTD |
| 16-Sep-25 | 308.32 | 1518.73 | -10204.5 | 30599.38 |
| 15-Sep-25 | -1268.59 | 1933.33 | -10204.5 | 30599.38 |
| 12-Sep-25 | 129.58 | 1556.02 | -10204.5 | 30599.38 |
| 11-Sep-25 | -3472.37 | 4045.54 | -10204.5 | 30599.38 |
| 10-Sep-25 | -115.69 | 5004.29 | -10204.5 | 30599.38 |
The FII turning net buyers after recent selling and sustained DII buying provides strong support to market sentiment.
Sector Analysis
Banking Sector Recovery
The banking sector showed signs of revival with Bank Nifty outperforming expectations:
- Recovery from horizontal trendline support
- Breakout above 50-day moving average
- Bullish momentum indicators turning positive
Pharma Sector Performance
The S&P BSE Healthcare Index closed at 44,776.2 (up 0.1%) with mixed performance across stocks. Key gainers included Newtime Infrastructure (+9.5%) and Lasa Supergenerics (+8.3%).
Currency and Bond Markets
Indian Rupee
The USD/INR is currently at 88.00, showing rupee strengthening from 88.10 levels. The rupee recovered from all-time lows, supported by:
- Weakness in US Dollar Index
- Positive domestic market sentiment
- Expectations of Fed rate cut
Key Market Drivers for September 17, 2025
Positive Factors
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: 96% probability boosting global risk sentiment
- Strong DII Support: Consistent buying for 15 sessions
- Technical Breakout: Nifty above key resistance levels
- Low Volatility: VIX at historic lows indicating calm markets
- Broad-based Rally: 42/50 Nifty stocks in green
Risk Factors
- Overbought Conditions: RSI approaching 70 levels
- Complacency: Extremely low VIX may mask hidden risks
- FII Flows: Still net sellers for the month
- Global Uncertainties: Geopolitical tensions affecting commodities
Trading Strategy and Outlook
Short-term Outlook (1-2 weeks)
- Bullish bias as long as Nifty holds above 25,100-25,150
- Target levels: 25,350-25,400, followed by 25,500-25,550
- Bank Nifty: Potential move to 56,000-56,150 levels
Medium-term View (1-3 months)
- Gradual upward trajectory supported by domestic flows
- Fed rate cut cycle to benefit emerging markets including India
- Sector rotation expected with banks potentially outperforming
Risk Management
Key Levels to Watch
- Nifty: Break below 25,000 could signal trend reversal
- Bank Nifty: Failure to hold 54,700 may lead to further correction
- VIX: Any spike above 12-13 levels could indicate volatility return
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
***Data Sources :-
Analyst Name: Pradeep Suryavanshi
Bestmate Investment Services Pvt. Ltd.:
A-1-605, Ansal Corporate Park Sec-142, Noida 201305
CIN: U74999UP2016PTC143375
SEBI Registration Number: INH000015996
Website: www.bestmate.in
Email: pradeep@bestmate.in
Download :- nifty 17-09-2025
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