The Indian equity markets are set for a cautious and range-bound opening on Monday, September 22, 2025, with Gift Nifty trading lower at 25,340, down 0.37% from Friday’s close. The market sentiment is mixed as investors grapple with the H1B visa fee hike impact on IT stocks and assess global cues following a week of consolidation.

The Nifty 50 ended Friday at 25,327.05 (down 96.55 points or 0.38%), Sensex at 82,626.23 (down 387.73 points or 0.47%), and Bank Nifty at 55,458.85 (down 268.60 points or 0.48%), snapping a three-day winning streak.

Major Market Driver: H1B Visa Fee Hike Impact

Trump Administration’s New Policy

The Trump administration’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee for new H1B visa applications has emerged as the primary market concern for Monday’s session. This policy, which came into effect on Sunday at 12:01 AM Eastern Time, is expected to significantly impact Indian IT stocks.

IT Sector Under Pressure

US-listed Indian IT stocks already showed the impact on Friday:

• Infosys ADRs: Down 3.41% to $16.97
• Wipro ADRs: Down 2.10% to $2.80
• Cognizant: Plunged 4.73% to $66.94

Analyst Projections:

• BofA Securities: Estimates 7-17% EPS risk over three years for IT companies
• Jefferies: Expects 4-13% profit drag with Tech Mahindra most exposed
• CLSA: Anticipates up to 6% impact on FY27 earnings

Silver Lining for IT Sector

Positive factors limiting the damage:

• Fee applies only to new applications, not renewals or existing visa holders
• 12-month planning window for companies to implement mitigation strategies
• Reduced H1B dependency: Only 3-5% of active workforce now on H1B visas vs historical highs
• Strong offshoring capabilities: 94% of business driven offshore for many companies

Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 Technical Setup

The Nifty is at a crucial juncture with key technical levels to watch:

Critical Support Levels:

• 25,250-25,200: Major support zone that bulls must defend
• 25,150: Strong support; breach could trigger selling towards 25,000
• 25,000-24,900: Next major support if correction deepens

Resistance Levels:

• 25,402-25,435: Immediate resistance (pivot points)
• 25,490-25,500: Key resistance zone
• 25,600-25,700: Major resistance if breakout occurs

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: 63.71 – still in bullish territory but showing slight decline
• MACD: Bullish crossover intact with histogram above zero
• Pattern: Double bottom reversal pattern formed with targets at 25,670-25,700

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty faces consolidation after 12 consecutive up sessions:

Key Levels:

• Support: 55,200-55,000 (critical zone to hold)
• Resistance: 55,800 (immediate), then 56,075-56,767
• Pattern: Needs to hold above 50-DEMA for continued strength

Global Market Cues

Asian Markets – Mixed Opening

Positive Momentum across most Asian markets on Monday morning:

• Nikkei 225: Up 1.3% after BoJ eased ETF sale concerns
• Kospi: Gained 0.71% on risk-on sentiment
• ASX 200: Up 0.49% following positive momentum
• US Futures: Flat to slightly lower due to H1B visa concerns

Bank of Japan Impact

The BoJ’s clarification on ETF holdings boosted Japanese markets:

• Century-long plan to offload ETF holdings eased investor concerns
• Nikkei bounced back after Friday’s decline on ETF sale worries

Institutional Activity Analysis

Recent Flow Trends (September 19 Data)

FII Activity:

• Cash Segment: Net buyers of ₹390.74 crores (second consecutive day of buying)
• Index Futures: Net sellers of ₹604.20 crores
• Monthly Position: Still net sellers of ₹10,571.65 crores for September

DII Activity:

• Strong Buying: Net purchases of ₹2,105.22 crores on September 19
• Consistent Support: Month-to-date net buying of ₹38,324.69 crores
• Market Stabilizer: DIIs continue to provide crucial support during volatility

Sector Analysis and Stock Focus

IT Sector – Under Pressure

Stocks to Watch:

• Large-cap IT: Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra
• Mid-cap IT: Coforge, Persistent Systems, Mphasis
• Expected Impact: 3-5% decline initially, with Tech Mahindra most vulnerable

Other Sectors in Focus

Positive Sectors:

• PSU Banks: Continued strength with 1% gain on Friday
• Realty: Outperformer with 0.8% gain
• Power: Strong momentum continues

Stocks to Watch Today:

• GRSE: Garden Reach Shipbuilders in focus
• Shipping Corp: Maritime sector attention
• NBCC India: Infrastructure play
• Zydus Lifesciences: USFDA approval boost

Market Outlook and Strategy

Short-term View (This Week)

Range-bound Trading Expected:

• Nifty Range: 25,200-25,500 likely trading zone
• Key Catalyst: Ability to hold 25,250 support for bulls
• Breakout Level: 25,500 remains crucial for next leg up

Trading Strategy

For Nifty:

• Buy Strategy: Above 25,300 with targets of 25,435-25,500
• Sell Strategy: Below 25,200 targeting 25,000-24,900
• Stop Loss: Strict risk management below key supports

For Bank Nifty:

• Long Positions: Above 55,200 targeting 55,800-56,000
• Caution Zone: Below 55,000 could trigger deeper correction

Risk Factors to Monitor

1. H1B Visa Impact: Continued pressure on IT stocks and broader sentiment
2. Global Cues: Fed policy uncertainty and Asian market volatility
3. Technical Breakdown: Break below 25,200 could trigger selling
4. FII Flows: Monthly net selling still a concern despite recent buying

Key Events This Week

Domestic Catalysts:

• GST Rate Cut Impact: Implementation and sector benefits
• US-India Trade Talks: Progress on bilateral discussions
• Corporate Earnings: Q2 FY26 results season approaches

Global Events:

• Fed Speeches: Governor Miran (Sep 22), Chair Powell (Sep 23)
• US Economic Data: GDP, PCE prices, PMI data
• China Economic Indicators: Market sentiment drivers

Options Data and Derivative

Key Options Levels:

• Maximum Call OI: 26,000 strike (1.58 crore contracts) – major resistance
• Put Support: 25,000 strike remains strong support base
• India VIX: Rose 0.78% to 9.96, indicating increased caution but still at historic lows

Conclusion

The Indian equity markets face a challenging start to the week with the H1B visa fee hike creating headwinds for IT stocks while positive Asian market cues provide some support. The Nifty’s ability to hold above 25,250-25,200 will be crucial for maintaining the medium-term bullish trend.

Key Takeaways:

• Defensive approach recommended given mixed global cues and IT sector pressure
• Focus on non-IT sectors like PSU banks, realty, and infrastructure
• Watch for buying opportunities in IT stocks if selling becomes excessive
• Maintain strict risk management given technical resistance levels

Trading Range: Nifty likely to trade between 25,200-25,500 with a negative bias initially due to IT sector concerns.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

 

Analyst Name: Pradeep Suryavanshi

Bestmate Investment Services Pvt. Ltd.:
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