Market Summary and Pre-Market Signals

The Indian equity markets extended their winning streak on Thursday, September 18, 2025, marking the third consecutive session of gains. The Nifty 50 rose 93.35 points (0.37%) to close at 25,423.60, while the Sensex advanced 320.25 points (0.39%) to settle at 83,013.96. The Bank Nifty continued its impressive run, gaining 234.45 points (0.42%) to close at 55,727.30, extending its winning streak to 12 consecutive sessions.

However, GIFT Nifty futures are trading 38 points lower at 25,473 as of 7:20 AM IST, indicating a slightly negative opening for Friday’s session. This cautious pre-market sentiment comes ahead of the crucial Bank of Japan rate decision and mixed global cues.

Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 Technical Setup

The Nifty has formed a high wave candle with a long lower shadow, signaling strong buying demand at lower levels and extension of the upward move. Key technical observations:

Critical Resistance Zone:

• 25,500: Immediate and crucial resistance level where a long falling trendline is placed
• 25,550-25,669: Next target zone, with 25,669 being the June high
• Breakout Significance: Sustaining above 25,500 could trigger a rally towards the yearly high

Support Levels:

• 25,330-25,250: Immediate support zone for any consolidation
• 25,150: Strong support level; crucial for trend continuation
• 25,000: Major psychological support

Technical Indicators:

• RSI: At 68.37, approaching overbought territory but maintaining bullish momentum
• MACD: Continues bullish crossover with strength visible in histogram
• Moving Averages: Trading above all key EMAs with bullish 20 and 50-day EMA crossover

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank Nifty has shown tremendous strength over the past 5-6 sessions with positive volume build-up:

Key Levels:

• Resistance: 56,000-56,160 (August high), then 56,500-56,600
• Crucial Level: 55,600 – sustaining above this can drive towards 56,160
• Support: 55,600 (immediate), 55,400, 55,200
• Strong Support: 54,800 (converging EMAs)

Pattern Analysis: The index formed a Hanging Man pattern, and a break below 55,490 could trigger consolidation down to 55,000.

Global Market Cues

Bank of Japan Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Friday, with the rate decision expected between 0300-0400 GMT (before Indian market opening):

Key Expectations:

• Rate Hold: Economists expect BOJ to maintain rates at 0.5% (highest since 2008)
• Future Outlook: HSBC analysts project a potential 25 bps hike in October
• Economic Focus: BOJ looking for indicators of economic strength amid tariff concerns
• Inflation Data: Japan’s core inflation eased to 2.7% in August, supporting the hold decision

Asian Markets Performance

Strong Opening Across Asia (September 19):

• Nikkei 225: Set for higher opening with futures at 45,745 (targeting another record high)
• ASX 200: Futures at 8,838 vs previous close of 8,745.20 (+0.74%)
• Hang Seng: Futures at 26,612 vs close of 26,544.85 (+0.25%)
• Kospi: Expected to open flat

US Market Impact

Record Highs Continue: All major US indices closed at fresh record highs on Thursday:

• S&P 500: +0.48% to 6,631.96
• Nasdaq: +0.94% to 22,470.73
• Dow Jones: +0.27% to 46,142.42

Institutional Activity Analysis

September 18 Flow Data – Positive Turnaround

FII Activity:

• Cash Segment: Net buyers of ₹366.69 crores (turned positive after selling)
• Index Options: Massive buying of ₹10,799 crores
• Index Futures: Strong buying of ₹1,347 crores
• Monthly Position: Still net sellers of ₹10,962.39 crores for September

DII Activity:

• Continued Strong Buying: Net purchases of ₹3,326.56 crores on September 18
• Consistent Pattern: 9th consecutive session of net buying
• Monthly Accumulation: ₹36,219.47 crores net buying for September

The FII turnaround in derivatives combined with sustained DII buying provides strong support to market sentiment.

India VIX – Historic Low Territory

The India VIX closed at 9.88, down 3.6% and representing a near one-year low. Key implications:

Historical Context:

• Current Level: 9.88 (lowest since October 24, 2024 when it hit 9.47)
• Monthly Decline: Down 19.23% in the past month
• Historic Low: All-time low of 8.18 reached in 2023

Market Implications:

• Extreme Confidence: Indicates very low volatility expectations
• Complacency Risk: Such low levels often precede either strong rallies or sudden volatility spikes
• Historical Pattern: Past instances of VIX below 10 were followed by meaningful Nifty gains (4.24% in 3 months in 2017, 26.42% in one year in 2023)

Options Data and Derivatives Analysis

Put-Call Ratio Analysis

Current PCR: 1.09 indicates bullish sentiment with more put buying than call buying:

• Put OI: 19,36,068 contracts
• Call OI: 17,70,397 contracts

Key Strike Analysis

Critical Levels:

• 25,500 CE: Maximum call writing – key resistance level
• 25,000 PE: Strong put support base
• 26,000 CE: Major resistance ceiling

Strategy Implication: The options data supports a bullish bias with strong put support at lower levels and significant resistance at 25,500.

Sector and Stock Highlights

Banking Sector Momentum

The banking sector continues to lead with PSU banks showing particular strength:

• Bank Nifty: 12 consecutive sessions of gains
• Key Stocks: SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank leading the rally
• Technical Setup: Strong momentum with volume support

Pharma and IT Sector

Positive Setups observed in:

• Pharma: Glenmark, Biocon, Mankind, Laurus Lab, Aurobindo Pharma
• IT: LTI Mindtree showing strength
• Others: AB Capital, Kfin Technologies in focus

Commodity Market Update

Energy Commodities

Crude Oil (September 19):

• WTI: Trading at $63.65/barrel (+0.13%)
• Brent: At $67.48/barrel (+0.06%)
• Monthly Performance: WTI up 1.50% over the month
• Outlook: Mixed due to Trump’s preference for lower prices vs supply concerns

Precious Metals

Gold: Trading at $3,648.23/oz (+0.12%) with monthly gains of 9.06% and yearly returns of 39.16%.

Trading Strategy for September 19, 2025

Nifty Strategy

For Bulls:

• Entry: Buy on dips above 25,330-25,350 levels
• Target: 25,500 (immediate), 25,600-25,669 (extended)
• Stop Loss: Below 25,250 for short-term trades

Key Watch: 25,500 breakout is crucial – sustaining above this level could trigger strong momentum towards yearly highs.

Bank Nifty Strategy

Bullish Setup:

• Entry: Above 55,600 with targets of 56,000-56,160
• Support: 55,400-55,200 zone
• Risk Management: Stop loss below 55,200

Risk Factors to Monitor

1. Gift Nifty Negative: Pre-market weakness could lead to gap-down opening
2. BOJ Decision: Any surprise could impact Asian sentiment
3. VIX Complacency: Extremely low volatility may mask hidden risks
4. Technical Resistance: 25,500 is a strong technical hurdle

Key Events and Timings for September 19

Global Events:

• 0300-0400 GMT: Bank of Japan rate decision
• 0630 GMT: BOJ Governor Ueda press conference

Conclusion

The Indian equity markets are positioned at a crucial juncture on September 19, 2025. While the underlying momentum remains strong supported by Fed rate cuts, strong DII flows, and technical breakouts, the slightly negative Gift Nifty and approach to key resistance levels warrant caution.

The 25,500 level for Nifty and 56,000 for Bank Nifty will be critical determinants of the next directional move. The historic low VIX indicates extreme confidence but also raises complacency concerns.

Market participants should:

• Watch for 25,500 breakout with conviction
• Monitor BOJ decision impact on Asian sentiment
• Maintain risk management given overbought conditions
• Consider buy-on-dips strategy above key support levels

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

***Data Sources :-

• https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/19/asia-pacific-markets-nikkei-225-kospi-bank-of-japan.html
• https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-keep-interest-rates-steady-tariff-us-slowdown-risks-loom-2025-09-18/
• https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/trading-plan-can-nifty-50-hold-thursday-s-low-bank-nifty-extend-winning-streak-for-13th-consecutive-session-13558749.html
• https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/stock-market-today-all-you-need-to-know-going-into-trade-on-september-19-2025
• https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/stock-market-live-updates-september-19-nse-bse-sensex-today-nifty-boj-rate-decision-ivalue-euro-pratik-ipo-125091900093_1.html

Analyst Name: Pradeep Suryavanshi

Bestmate Investment Services Pvt. Ltd.:
A-1-605, Ansal Corporate Park Sec-142, Noida 201305
CIN: U74999UP2016PTC143375
SEBI Registration Number: INH000015996
Website: www.bestmate.in    I    Email: pradeep@bestmate.in

Download :- nifty 19-09-2025

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