Market Opening Expectations

The Indian equity markets are set for a flat to marginally positive opening on September 11, 2025, with GIFT Nifty trading around 25,088 levels, indicating a gain of approximately 15 points from the previous close. This suggests a muted start for both Nifty 50 and Sensex, following Wednesday’s solid gains where markets closed higher for the sixth consecutive session.

Technical Analysis

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

The Nifty 50 closed at 24,973.10 on Wednesday, up 0.42%, after briefly crossing the psychologically important 25,000 level during intraday trading. Key technical levels for today:

Immediate Resistance: 25,021, 25,049, and 25,095

Support Levels: 24,929, 24,900, and 24,854

Critical Breakout Zone: A decisive move above 25,160 could open the path toward 25,340, while support is placed at 24,950 and 24,850

The index has formed a Doji or high wave-like candlestick pattern, indicating indecision between bulls and bears. However, the RSI has climbed to 56.81 with a positive crossover, while the MACD shows bullish momentum with the histogram gaining strength.

Bank Nifty Technical Setup

Bank Nifty closed at 54,536, up 0.59%, and remains in a consolidation phase within the 54,400-54,700 range. Key levels:

Resistance: 54,664, 54,736, and 54,852

Support: 54,430, 54,358, and 54,242Critical Levels: A breakout above 55,000 could provide additional momentum, while support exists at 53,500-54,000

India VIX Analysis

The India VIX declined by 1.38% to 10.54 on Wednesday, marking its lowest closing level since July 23. This low volatility reading signals increased market comfort and a low-uncertainty environment, which typically favors bullish sentiment.

Fundamental Factors
Positive Momentum Drivers:

• India-US Trade Talks: Optimism surrounding potential India-US trade negotiations has boosted market sentiment
• GST Rate Cuts Impact: Recent GST Council decisions to reduce rates are expected to boost consumption and benefit specific sectors
• Robust DII Buying: Domestic Institutional Investors have been net buyers for 12 consecutive sessions, purchasing ₹5,004.29 crore on September 10

FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors were net sellers to the tune of ₹115.69 crore on September 10, though this was modest compared to previous sessions. Month-to-date, FIIs have been net sellers of ₹5,901.48 crore in September.

Currency and Commodity Update

Indian Rupee: Trading at 88.05-88.11 against the USD, remaining relatively stable
Crude Oil: WTI at $63.66 and Brent at $67.49 per barrel, holding three-day gains amid geopolitical tensions

Global Market Cues

US Federal Reserve Outlook

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16-17 meeting, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of this scenario. Key factors:

• US Producer Prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in August, supporting rate cut expectations
• August CPI data scheduled for release today is expected to show inflation at 2.9% year-over-year
• A 10% chance remains for a larger 50 basis point cut

Asian Market Performance

Mixed Opening: Asian markets opened mixed Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.23%, South Korea’s Kospi advancing 0.67%, while Hong Kong futures indicated a weaker start. US equity futures showed marginal gains following Wall Street’s record closes.

Sectoral Outlook

Outperformers:

• IT Sector: Led Wednesday’s rally with a 2.6% gain, benefiting from rate cut expectations and US trade optimism
• Banking: PSU Bank index rose 2.2%, supported by positive sentiment
• Realty: Gained 1% amid GST-related optimism

Underperformers:

• Auto Sector: Declined 1% due to profit-booking
• Media Stocks: Witnessed selling pressure

Key Levels and Trading Strategy

For Nifty 50:

• Buy Above: 24,900 with targets at 24,980, 25,065, 25,150 and stop-loss at 24,750
• Sell Below: 24,730 with targets at 24,620, 24,530, 24,430 and stop-loss at 24,775

For Bank Nifty:

• Buy Above: 54,200 with targets at 54,350, 54,490, 54,650 and stop-loss at 53,860
• Sell Below: 53,850 with targets at 53,680, 53,495, 53,180 and stop-loss at 54,100

Market Sentiment and Outlook

The overall market sentiment remains constructive with expectations of continued gradual upward movement supported by:

1. Positive global cues from expected US rate cuts
2. GST-led consumption boost from recent policy changes
3. Robust domestic macroeconomic fundamentals
4. Low volatility environment as indicated by India VIX levels

Key Risks: Continued FII selling pressure and global geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding oil prices due to Middle East conflicts and Russia-related sanctions.

The market appears positioned for range-bound trading with an upward bias, contingent on sustaining above key support levels and the outcome of US inflation data later today.

***Data Sources :-

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/
https://www.moneycontrol.com/
https://in.tradingview.com

Analyst Name: Pradeep Suryavanshi
Bestmate Investment Services Pvt. Ltd.:
A-1-605, Ansal Corporate Park Sec-142, Noida 201305
CIN: U74999UP2016PTC143375
SEBI Registration Number: INH000015996
Website: www.bestmate.in
Email: pradeep@bestmate.in

Download :- nifty 11-09-2025

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