The Bank Nifty emerged as the standout performer, surging 1.84% for the week and approaching its all-time high levels near 57,300. The banking index’s strength was supported by robust quarterly business updates from major lenders and expectations of stable net interest margins amid the RBI’s neutral monetary policy stance.​

Sectoral Leadership and Rotation

The week witnessed broad-based sectoral participation with seven out of eight major sectors ending in positive territory. The banking sector led the charge with its 1.84% weekly gain, followed by Oil & Gas (+1.59%) and the broader Nifty 50 index itself (+1.57%). The IT sector recovered smartly with a 1.11% gain, supported by optimism surrounding the earnings season and stable enterprise spending expectations.​

The only laggard was the metals sector, which declined 1.47% despite initial strength early in the week. The sector faced headwinds from concerns about global demand amid trade tensions and profit-booking after recent gains driven by supply-side disruptions.​

Institutional Flow Dynamics – A Positive Turnaround

FII Sentiment Stabilizes After Volatile Start

One of the most encouraging developments has been the stabilization of Foreign Institutional Investor flows after a turbulent start to October. While FIIs recorded a modest net outflow of ₹213.04 crore for the month-to-date, this represents a significant improvement from the heavy selling pressure witnessed in the first few sessions.​

The daily breakdown reveals a clear shift in sentiment, with FIIs turning net buyers in five of the last six trading sessions, including substantial buying of ₹1,440.66 crore on October 7 and ₹1,308.16 crore on October 9. This turnaround suggests growing confidence in Indian market fundamentals despite global uncertainties.​

DII Support Remains Unwavering

Domestic Institutional Investors have been the bedrock of market stability, recording consistent net purchases totaling ₹11,797.01 crore for October month-to-date. Their largest single-day buying was witnessed on October 6 with net purchases of ₹5,036.39 crore, demonstrating strong conviction in the domestic growth story.​

Technical Analysis and Market Structure

Nifty 50 Approaching Key Resistance

From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 has demonstrated impressive strength by reclaiming the 25,200-25,300 zone and approaching the crucial resistance cluster at 25,400-25,450 levels. The index has successfully retraced more than 80% of its decline from the September high of 25,448 to the October low of 24,588, indicating robust recovery momentum.​

The weekly chart shows a sizable bullish candle with higher highs and higher lows, signaling continuation of the uptrend. The index has closed above all key short-term moving averages and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, while the RSI at 61 and MACD maintaining a bullish crossover support the positive technical outlook.​

Key Technical Levels for October 13:

The support base has shifted higher to the 25,000-24,900 zone, which includes the previous week’s low and the confluence of 20 & 50-day EMAs. A decisive break above 25,450 could trigger the next leg of the rally toward 25,670, representing the June 2025 high.​

Bank Nifty Momentum Intact

Bank Nifty continues to outperform with its technical structure decisively favoring buyers. The index has broken convincingly above the crucial supply zone of 56,100-55,800, with the bullish momentum reinforced by a positive crossover of the 20 DEMA above the 50 DEMA.​

The monthly VWAP along with 10- and 20-day EMAs are clustered in the 55,900-56,156 range, providing rock-solid demand zone support. Any pullback toward 56,156 should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with the target of testing all-time highs around 57,300-57,600.​

Derivative Market Insights

Volatility and Options Activity

The India VIX rose marginally to 10.12, remaining at historically low levels despite the global uncertainty. This subdued volatility reading suggests that domestic investors maintain confidence in market stability, though the reading could spike if global tensions escalate further.​

The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) increased significantly to 1.41, up from 1.06 in the previous session, indicating a strong bullish bias among options traders. This elevated PCR suggests that traders are writing more puts than calls, reflecting confidence in the market’s ability to sustain current levels.​

The shift in maximum call open interest from 25,200 to 25,300 strike indicates that resistance levels are moving higher, while the unchanged maximum put OI at 25,000 reinforces this level as strong support for the near term.​

Earnings Season and Corporate Developments

Q2FY26 Results Gathering Momentum

The earnings season is set to intensify this week with major technology and banking sector results. HCL Technologies and Axis Bank are scheduled to announce their Q2FY26 results on Monday, which will provide crucial insights into sectoral trends and management commentary on demand outlook.​

The IT sector’s performance will be particularly watched given the global economic uncertainties and their impact on enterprise spending. Early results from TCS showed modest growth with margin pressures, setting expectations for the broader sector.​

Key Corporate Actions

Several significant corporate developments are expected this week:

• Axis Bank faces regulatory scrutiny with RBI issuing a ‘Letter of Caution’ regarding KYC compliance

• Computer Age Management Services has approved a 5:1 stock split subject to shareholder approval

• Bulk deals in Cartrade Tech and WeWork India indicate continued private equity interest​

Week Ahead: Key Events and Market Drivers

Economic Data Releases

The week is packed with crucial economic data releases that could influence market direction:

• Monday (Oct 13): CPI Inflation data for September

• Tuesday (Oct 14): Weekly F&O expiry amid heightened volatility

• Wednesday (Oct 15): IIP and Manufacturing PMI data

• Thursday (Oct 16): Weekly FII/DII flow summary

• Friday (Oct 17): Monthly options expiry​

The September CPI inflation print will be particularly crucial as it could influence RBI’s future monetary policy decisions and provide direction for interest-sensitive sectors like banking and real estate.

Global Event Calendar

Key global events to monitor include:

• US-China trade negotiations and potential diplomatic interventions

• Federal Reserve officials’ speeches amid the ongoing government shutdown

• China’s Q3 GDP and trade data releases

• European inflation data and ECB policy signals​

Market Strategy and Outlook

Near-term Challenges and Opportunities

The market faces a complex set of challenges in the near term. While domestic fundamentals remain strong with robust institutional support and improving corporate earnings, the escalation of US-China trade tensions poses significant headwinds. The key will be the market’s ability to maintain support above 25,000 levels while global uncertainties persist.​

Technical indicators suggest that any decline toward 25,100-25,000 should be viewed as a buying opportunity, provided there’s no escalation in trade tensions. The support base has shifted higher, and the overall trend remains intact despite near-term volatility prospects.​

Sectoral Strategy

Given the current environment, a defensive yet opportunistic approach is warranted:

Overweight Positions:

• Banking Sector: Strong technical setup and domestic growth drivers

• IT Services: Defensive play with potential export benefits from rupee weakness

• Pharmaceuticals: Defensive characteristics and export orientation

• Domestic Consumption: Insulated from trade war impacts

Underweight Positions:

• Metals & Mining: Vulnerable to global demand concerns

• Export-oriented Manufacturing: Direct impact from trade disruptions

• Technology Hardware: Supply chain disruption risks

Risk Management Priorities

Key risk factors to monitor:

1. Escalation of US-China trade tensions beyond current levels

2. Breakdown of key technical support at 25,000 on Nifty

3. Reversal in FII flows due to global risk-off sentiment

4. Disappointing Q2 earnings results from major corporates

5. Unexpected adverse domestic policy announcements

Trading Recommendations for October 13:

• Defensive Opening: Given GIFT Nifty’s flat indication amid global weakness, expect a cautious start

• Buy on Dips: Any decline toward 25,100-25,000 zone offers accumulation opportunity

• Sector Focus: Banking, IT, and Pharma for relative outperformance

• Risk Management: Maintain stop-losses below 24,950 for long positions

• Options Strategy: Consider protective puts given elevated geopolitical risks

Conclusion

The Indian equity markets enter the new trading week at a critical juncture, balancing strong domestic fundamentals against escalating global trade tensions. While the two-week rally has established a solid technical foundation with Nifty approaching key resistance levels, the renewed US-China trade conflict poses significant near-term challenges.

The market’s resilience will be tested by global headwinds, but several factors provide support: unwavering domestic institutional buying, improving corporate earnings outlook, stable monetary policy environment, and strong technical structure. The shift in FII sentiment from heavy selling to cautious buying also provides encouragement.

Investors should adopt a balanced approach, using any weakness as an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks while maintaining appropriate risk management. The earnings season will provide crucial insights into corporate health, while global developments will determine the broader market sentiment.

The key levels to watch remain 25,000 on the downside for Nifty 50 and 25,450 on the upside. A sustained move above the latter could trigger the next leg of the rally toward 25,670, while a break below the former might lead to deeper consolidation.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.

Download full report :- Nifty OL 13-10-2025

Analyst Name: Pradeep Suryavanshi
Bestmate Investment Services Pvt. Ltd.:
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