Indian equity markets are set for a moderately positive opening on Thursday, November 20, 2025—expiry day of weekly Nifty and Bank Nifty options—with market sentiment buoyed by a powerful IT sector rally driven by softer-than-expected US labour market data strengthening Fed rate cut expectations, coupled with Bank Nifty touching an all-time high of 59,264 on Wednesday. The Nifty 50 recovered smartly from intraday lows to close at 26,052.65 (+0.55%), the Sensex surged 513.45 points or 0.61% to 85,186.47, and the Bank Nifty rallied 0.51% to 59,264.40—an all-time closing high—as investors positioned ahead of today’s critical technical junctures at 26,100-26,277 for Nifty and 59,440-59,800 for Bank Nifty.​

Market Performance Recap: Wednesday’s Recovery Rally Driven by IT Strength and US Labour Optimism

Wednesday’s trading session on November 19 witnessed a powerful recovery from intraday weakness, with Indian benchmarks erasing morning losses and closing in the green, driven by exceptional strength in the IT sector following softer-than-expected US September labour market data that enhanced Fed rate cut prospects. The Nifty 50 recovered from an intraday low of 25,808 to close at 26,052.65, gaining 142.60 points or 0.55%, reclaiming and holding above the crucial 26,000 level for the second consecutive trading day.​

The BSE Sensex delivered even stronger recovery, bouncing from an intraday low of 84,800 to close at 85,186.47, gaining 513.45 points or 0.61%, and approaching the psychologically significant 85,200-85,236 resistance zone. The Bank Nifty was the session’s standout performer, surging 0.51% or 301.65 points to close at an all-time high of 59,264.40, after touching an intraday record high of 59,264.40 (equal to closing high)—a significant technical achievement that validates the banking sector’s exceptional strength.​

Market breadth remained mixed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 advancing 0.13% while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.38%, indicating that gains were concentrated in large-cap and banking stocks rather than broadly distributed.​

The India VIX compressed by 1.44% to 12.25, declining from an intraday high of 12.37 to a low of 11.76, reflecting reduced volatility fears as the market recovered from its morning lows.​

Sectoral performance was dominated by IT strength, with the Nifty IT Index surging an exceptional 2.97%—its strongest daily performance in weeks—driven by HCL Technologies (+3.98%), Infosys (+3.45%), Wipro (+2.87%), and TCS (+1.92%). The IT rally reflected investor optimism that softer US labour data strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would support US tech spending normalization.​

The Nifty Media Index advanced 1.50%, while Banking stocks gained 0.51% and Private Banks advanced 0.48%. PSU stocks declined 0.15% and Realty fell 0.45%, while Energy suffered the most with a 1.25% decline, likely driven by selling in ONGC (-0.97%) and Coal India (-0.81%).​

Technical Analysis: Nifty at Crucial 26,100 Resistance, All-Time High 26,277 in Sight

From a technical perspective, Wednesday’s close at 26,052.65 positions the Nifty 50 in a critically important zone, just 48 points away from the immediate resistance at 26,100, which represents October’s high and the third attempt to break above this level since the recovery began. According to Option Chain India’s comprehensive technical analysis, the index has formed a bullish candle with higher highs and higher lows, indicating strong buying interest and continuation of positive momentum.​

All technical indicators are decisively bullish, per the detailed analysis:​

• RSI at 64.21 shows strong momentum without yet entering overbought territory above 70

• Stochastic RSI maintains a bullish crossover, confirming upside momentum

• MACD shows a positive crossover with the histogram climbing above the zero line

• 20-day EMA continues to provide dynamic support, remaining inclined northward

Key technical targets identified are:​

• Immediate resistance at 26,074 (today’s high from Wednesday)

• Major resistance at 26,100-26,148—a critical barrier that, if broken, would confirm bullish breakout

• Extended targets at 26,198 and 26,270—bringing the Nifty close to its all-time high of 26,277

• If momentum accelerates beyond 26,198, the index could test the 26,270 zone, effectively challenging the October all-time high of 26,277​

A decisive breakout above 26,100 with sustained buying could set the stage for the Nifty to move toward its all-time high of 26,277 in the upcoming sessions”.​

On the support side;

• Immediate support at 25,856 represents today’s intraday low and the first line of defense for bulls

• Critical support at 25,797 and 25,739—the latter coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 20-day EMA

• Breakdown below 25,739 would raise concerns about recovery sustainability

The Bank Nifty technical setup is overwhelmingly bullish, with the index achieving an all-time high of 59,264, breaking out from a four-week consolidation range of 57,300-58,600. Index continues to show relative strength compared to Nifty, indicating sustained buying particularly in heavyweight and PSU banking names.​

Bank Nifty technical targets identified are:​

• Immediate resistance at 59,264 (all-time high achieved Wednesday)

• Extended resistance at 59,440, 59,530, and 59,630 based on Fibonacci extensions

• Crucial support at 59,000—a psychological level with strong put writing

• Deeper support at 58,998, 58,903, and 58,798 (previous day’s low)

• Potential to test 59,800 in the coming sessions if momentum sustains​

Derivative Market Signals: Expiry Day Dynamics to Dominate, Short-Covering Likely

Thursday, being weekly expiry day for Nifty and Bank Nifty options, is expected to see significant expiry-related volatility, with market movement driven substantially by option sellers’ defense of key strikes and potential short-covering rallies if resistance levels are broken.​

According to Option Chain India’s analysis, options positioning shows:​

• Nifty 26,100 strike: Heaviest call writing, indicating resistance expected at this level

• Below this level: Call writing decreases significantly, suggesting reduced supply pressure for a potential breakout

• 25,700 strike: Maximum put writing, establishing unconditional support

For Bank Nifty, the options configuration is particularly bullish, with:​

• Maximum call writing at upper resistance zones, suggesting these levels will need strong buying to break through

• Put writing at 59,000 providing cushion against sharp declines

• Potential for continued upside if 59,264 resistance is sustained

The options analysis suggests that if the Nifty decisively clears 26,100 on expiry day, short-covering could trigger a rapid move toward 26,148-26,198, particularly given the thin call supply above this level.​

Institutional Flow Dynamics: FIIs Turn Strongly Positive, DIIs Maintain Support

The most significant development on Wednesday was the dramatic reversal in FII sentiment, with FIIs becoming the strongest net buyers of the month with purchases of ₹1,580.72 crores—the highest single-day FII buying since the recovery began in mid-November. FIIs purchased shares worth ₹14,774.92 crores and sold ₹13,194.20 crores, indicating that foreign investors are now viewing Indian equities as attractive opportunities after the recent corrections.​

This FII reversal is particularly noteworthy because it represents a fundamental shift in foreign investor sentiment from selling mode throughout most of November to now becoming net buyers amid softer US labour data and strengthening Fed rate cut prospects.​

Domestic Institutional Investors continued their consistent support, with net purchases of ₹1,360.27 crores on Wednesday, though notably reduced compared to recent days—likely due to profit-taking after the strong recent rally. DIIs have purchased shares worth ₹13,904.32 crores and sold ₹12,544.05 crores.​

For November through November 19, FIIs have shown significant improvement, reducing cumulative selling from ₹18,620.66 crores (through Nov 14) to ₹12,358.59 crores (through Nov 19)—a remarkable turnaround in just 5 trading days. Meanwhile, DIIs’ cumulative November inflows stand at ₹50,335.09 crores, demonstrating their consistent, robust support throughout the month.​

The ₹62,693.68 crore institutional divergence (DIIs buying ₹50,335 vs FIIs selling ₹12,358 for November to date) continues to underscore the critical role of domestic institutions in anchoring the market, though the narrowing FII outflow differential is a positive sign.​

Wednesday’s session witnessed exceptional sectoral divergence, with IT stocks delivering a powerful breakout while energy stocks suffered significant weakness.​

The Nifty IT Index surged 2.97%, driven by HCL Technologies soaring 3.98% to ₹1,620.35, Infosys gaining 3.45% to ₹1,556.80, Wipro advancing 2.87% to ₹1,684.50, and TCS rising 1.92% to ₹3,189.00. The IT surge reflected investor optimism that softer US labour data increases the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would support US tech spending normalization and reduce macro uncertainty for IT services exports.​

Media stocks advanced 1.50%, with banking sector gaining 0.51% and private banks advancing 0.48%, as investors rotated toward earnings-stability plays ahead of expiry day.​

The Nifty Energy Index declined 1.25%, with ONGC falling 0.97% and Coal India dropping 0.81%—likely driven by concerns about global demand deterioration from moderating growth expectations.​

Realty declined 0.45%, while PSU stocks surprisingly declined 0.15% despite banking sector strength, suggesting selective profit-taking in PSU names after their recent strong performance.​

Among individual stocks, Dr Reddy Laboratories gained 1.73%, while Tata Motors PV declined 1.25%, Adani Ports fell 1.18%, and Bajaj Finance dropped 0.98%.​

Global Market Cues: US Labour Data Soft, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen

The global market environment heading into Thursday presents a decidedly positive backdrop, with softer-than-expected US September labour market data announced Wednesday strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and triggering a broad-based global equities rally.​

According to Independent.org analysis, the US Employment Situation report (September data) showed merely 22,000 jobs added, significantly below expectations, indicating cooling labour market dynamics. The Fed has already responded to prior weak labour data with rate cuts, and this latest softness has reinforced market expectations for a December rate cut, with Fed Governor Waller already signaling support for another 25 basis point cut in December despite inflation concerns.​

U.S. markets posted strong gains overnight:

• Dow Jones advanced 1.35% to 47,247.55

• S&P 500 rose 0.80% to 6,729.61

• Nasdaq jumped 1.16% to 23,012.37—particularly strong for tech stocks

The strength reflected investor relief that the softer labour data provides justification for the Fed to continue cutting rates, easing concerns about prolonged monetary tightness.​

Asian markets are trading higher on Thursday morning:

• Nikkei 225 up 0.95% to 50,900

• Hang Seng up 0.45% to 26,400

• Shanghai Composite up 0.32% to 4,035

The broad-based global strength provides a supportive backdrop for Indian markets heading into expiry day.​

The US Dollar Index traded at 88.48, down 0.07%, reflecting reduced safe-haven demand as labour market concerns ease. Against the Indian rupee, the USD/INR traded around 88.48, virtually unchanged from Wednesday’s 88.48 level.​

Crude oil prices consolidated around $60.26 per barrel for WTI (down 0.79%) and $65.12 for Brent (up 0.15%), reflecting moderate consolidation after recent volatility. For India, stable crude prices continue to provide relief on the import bill.​

Market Outlook for November 20: Expiry Day Could Trigger Breakout to 26,100-26,300

Looking ahead to Thursday’s weekly expiry trading session, market participants should prepare for a moderately positive bias with potential for volatility-driven moves as traders position ahead of today’s options expiry.​

The Nifty 50 faces a critical technical juncture at 26,100, which if broken decisively could trigger short-covering rallies toward 26,148-26,198 and potentially the 26,270 zone. The immediate support levels at 25,856-25,797 should provide a floor for any intraday declines.​

The Bank Nifty all-time high at 59,264 sets the stage for potential continued upside toward 59,440-59,530, with support solid at 59,000-58,900.​

Critical catalysts for Thursday’s session include:

1. Options expiry dynamics—with the potential for short-covering rallies if resistance levels are defended and broken​

2. US labour market commentary from Fed officials reacting to Wednesday’s softer data​

3. India-US trade negotiations—any announcements would provide additional directional catalysts​

4. RBI policy signals ahead of the December MPC meeting​

5. Global equity performance—particularly US technology stocks given their correlation with Indian IT stocks​

Trading Strategy and Risk Management Framework

Given the positive technical setup, supportive global backdrop, FII buying reversal, and expiry day dynamics, a constructively bullish approach appears warranted for Thursday’s session, though traders should take profits on strength given the extended rally.​

For Nifty traders: The primary objective should be to target 26,100 as the first breakout level, with stops below 25,739 providing appropriate risk management. A close above 26,100 would validate continued upside toward 26,148-26,198.​

Traders positioned long from lower levels should consider taking partial profits near 26,100-26,150.​

Fresh buyers can initiate positions on any pullbacks toward 25,900-25,950, with targets at 26,100-26,300 over a 2-3 session timeframe.​

Options strategies should focus on call spreads (buying 26,100 call, selling 26,200 call) to participate in controlled breakout moves, or put selling at 25,850 strike for income generation.​

Bank Nifty traders should aim to sustain positions above 59,000, with targets at 59,440-59,530 and potential for 59,800 if momentum accelerates.​

Sector allocation should maintain exposure to IT, Media, and Banking stocks that demonstrated strength, while being cautious about Energy stocks that faced selling pressure.​